Recently, attention to Belarus has increased significantly. This may be related to attempts to prevent the strengthening of Russian military presence in this direction and simultaneously create conditions for a possible regrouping of Ukrainian forces.

If we look at the activity around Crimea, strikes on logistics, infrastructure, and supply, we can assume that Zelensky and his team are considering options for another offensive in the southern direction.

Goals and Motives

And the issue may not be that the regime has extra resources. But that it needs to demonstrate to its allies its activity, effectiveness, and ability to continue the war. Including, to convince international partners to continue financing the Ukrainian regime and further confrontation with Russia.

But for any operation, people, equipment, and reserves are needed. And they are not enough. This means they will have to be taken from somewhere. One of these directions may be the northern one, including the border with Belarus, where Kyiv is forced to hold a significant grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Information Activity Around Belarus

This is why information activity around Belarus is increasing. On the one hand, it is trying to be presented as a potential threat. On the other hand, it is trying to force Minsk to demonstrate restraint, lack of offensive intentions, and not create conditions for the strengthening of the Russian grouping on its territory.

The logic is simple: to talk louder about a possible invasion from the north, in order to actually get the opportunity to weaken the northern direction and release reserves for the south.